The team that lost 121 games in 2024, then lost 102 more in 2025, sits atop or tied atop the American League Central at the 2026 All-Star break. The Chicago White Sox. That team.
The consensus is unanimous, which is rare for anything in baseball. Yahoo Sports called them the most surprising team of 2026. ESPN's midseason report cards handed them an A+, no team got a higher grade, while noting they were coming off three straight 100-loss seasons. When outlets that agree on almost nothing all point at the same clubhouse, you stop calling it a hot take and start calling it a fact.
Just how far they've climbed
To appreciate the surprise, sit with the baseline for a second. In 2024, the White Sox set a single-season record by losing 121 games. Last year they went 60-102 under rookie manager Will Venable. Preseason projection systems didn't blink: FanGraphs models forecast a 67-95 record, worst in the AL by nearly five wins, with roughly a one-percent chance of reaching the playoffs. Nobody expected this team to just struggle. They were projected to be historically bad, again.
For a couple weeks, the forecast looked safe. They opened 0-3, then 1-5, then 6-13. Then something turned. Starting with a heartbreaking extra-inning loss on April 18, Chicago reeled off a stretch that, as of early to mid-June, stood at 29-17, tied for the best mark in the American League over that span and topped only by the Braves in all of baseball.
The climb has been a slow, verifiable staircase, not one lucky week. They were 34-31 in early June, sitting in a Wild Card spot. They were 36-31 by mid-June, on pace for 87 wins. They closed June at 43-39 and in first place. By July 9 they were 47-44. They stood at 50-45 entering the break, tied with the Guardians for the AL Central lead. That's worth reading as "atop or tied atop" as of mid-July: a game either way flips a tie into sole possession or into a half-game deficit. This race is that tight.
The engine: two M's and a V
The surprise runs through the infield. Munetaka Murakami arrived from Japan on a two-year, $34 million deal that drew less of a free-agency frenzy than you'd expect, a bottom-feeder's bargain that has looked like a coup. Before a hamstring injury sent him to the injured list around May 29, he'd hit 20 home runs in 60 games with 42 RBI, and he only returned to the lineup around July 11. Colson Montgomery entered the break with 23 home runs. Miguel Vargas, acquired in the 2024 three-team trade that shipped Tommy Edman to the Dodgers, a deal that once looked like nothing, has climbed to 20 home runs of his own by the break.
That trio did something the franchise hadn't done since 2006, the Dye-Thome-Konerko days: give the White Sox three 20-home-run hitters before the All-Star break. Chicago is the only team in baseball with three 20-homer players this year, which is something, considering one of them missed roughly six weeks.
