Jakub Dobes said it himself after Montreal's 5-4 loss in Washington on Wednesday: "I wasn't good enough. I need to be better." Believe him, because the tape backs it up, and so does the math.
Dobes stopped 18 of 23 shots against the Capitals, a .783 night that dropped his season save percentage to .841 through four starts. Jacob Fowler, the goalie Montreal benched him for over the previous two games before handing the net back for this back-to-back, sits at .906. That's a real gap, the kind you can't blame on March noise. Dobes has now let in five or more goals in three of his four outings this year, on a team that's otherwise finding ways to compete.
And Montreal did compete. Josh Anderson scored twice, Lane Hutson and Nick Suzuki chipped in, and the Canadiens traded chances with a Washington team that had lost in Carolina the night before. None of that matters if the goaltender gives back what the skaters build. People who track this closely say Dobes should have stopped Alex Tuch's shorthanded goal. Justin Holl's go-ahead goal was worse: Dobes shrunk himself down on a shot that just asked him to spread out and cover the net. Those are reps a No. 1 goaltender has to make, and he isn't making them.
It's October, Montreal is 3-3-1, and one ugly score on the second night of a back-to-back shouldn't decide a goaltending competition by itself. Dobes started on tired legs, his first appearance in over a week, after Fowler had just started three straight. That explains a bad night, but not a whole season.
The pattern was already building before puck drop. Montreal recalled Fowler after Samuel Montembeault's injury, started him three games running over the goalie who was supposed to be the undisputed No. 1 out of camp, and the only reason Dobes was back in net Wednesday was the schedule, not a vote of confidence. Martin St. Louis has already made this decision with his lineup card; he just won't say it.
He should say it: ride Fowler, and stop handing Dobes a starter's job security he hasn't earned this season just because he wore the label on opening night. Dobes can still be Montreal's goaltender of the future. Fowler is the guy who gives this team its best chance to win tonight. Coaches who ignore that for sentiment end up explaining a lost season in April.
