Ask who's next to be fired in college football and the honest answer is uncomfortable: almost nobody, because almost nobody's athletic department can afford it right now. The hot seat is real, and most schools can't afford to act on it. The clearest example is sitting in Tallahassee.
Mike Norvell is in his seventh year at Florida State with a 41-38 record, and the loss to Miami dropped the Seminoles to 3-4, 1-3 in conference play. From December 3, 2023 through October 25, 2026, Florida State has won five games against Power Four opponents. Five wins in 1,057 days would end almost any other coach's tenure. At Florida State, it's left the program stuck negotiating with its own checkbook.
The number is $48 million if the school fires him without cause after this week. That would be the third-highest buyout in college football history, behind only Jimbo Fisher's $76.8 million from Texas A&M and Brian Kelly's $54 million from LSU. Wait until the end of the season and it drops to a reported $45.6 million. Florida State already answered the question of whether Norvell's a good coach, on the field. What's left is whether a school with real financial constraints wants to write one of the biggest firing checks the sport has ever seen.
This mess belongs to the people who wrote that deal. Florida State handed Norvell this contract in a panic, and now a program that prides itself on being a blue blood is being run by its own exit clause. One person with knowledge of the situation said, "The FSU president (Richard McCullough) and board of trustees now are starting to get heat about the football program, and they don't like that." Good. They earned the heat. You don't get to build a buyout that detonates your own budget and then act surprised when it handcuffs you.
Deion Sanders is the other coach living out on this ledge, and his protection is a different currency. Colorado got drubbed by Oklahoma State 57-24, which left the Buffaloes 2-5 and dead last in the Big 12 at 0-4 in conference as of that game. The stat making the rounds is the brutal one: Sanders' last 20 games at Colorado match Karl Dorrell's last 20 games at Colorado, both 5-15 with four losses by 30 or more. Colorado fired Dorrell mid-season for exactly that. The only reason that comparison hasn't ended the same way is that Sanders brings a media circus and a national brand instead of a killer buyout. His protection is star power, and it still counts as protection.
Sanders has a real counter: the 2024 team went 9-4 with Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, a genuinely good season the Dorrell comparison skips. But a high-water mark two years ago doesn't buy a coach forever, and if the best argument for keeping him is a roster that's since left for the NFL, that argument has nothing to do with him.
Brent Key is the case that shows the rot isn't only about money. Georgia Tech opened last season 8-0 and climbed as high as seventh in the AP poll before losing four of their final five. This year's team sits at 2-5, 1-3 in the ACC through seven games. Nobody is citing Key's contract as the reason he's safe. If any program should be making a cold, performance-based call this fall, it's this one, because for once the finances aren't the excuse. A collapse that steep should scare administrators no matter what it costs to move on.
The carousel is already spinning. Maryland, NC State and Baylor all dismissed their head coaches by October 25. Mike Locksley was out at Maryland with a 39-54 record. UCLA and Virginia Tech both cut their coaches after 0-3 starts, and Billy Napier at Florida keeps landing on every list. Even Bill Belichick's early goodwill at North Carolina took a hit when the Tar Heels blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead and lost to Syracuse 31-30 in overtime, dropping them to 4-3. His own take: "Not too much to say about this one." Neither, apparently, is UNC's administration.
If Norvell or Sanders gets fired this season, it will be because someone finally decides to eat a number most schools would rather pretend isn't there. Performance caught up with both of them months ago. The firing nobody fears anymore is the one fans have been screaming for all along, and the number is doing the coaching now.
