Detroit's asking price for Dylan Larkin is reasonable. People keep getting that part backwards. He's still a Red Wing because of who set the conditions on that price.
On TSN's "Early Trading" with Gino Reda, aired October 15, Darren Dreger laid out what Detroit wants: GM Jeff Horcoff is looking for three or four pieces, which Dreger described as two A-quality prospects, a top-nine forward who can play in the NHL right now, and a first-round pick on top of that. Dreger then gave his own read: he thinks clubs are willing to pay it, and it doesn't sound too steep for a player who'd slot in as a No. 2 centre on most teams in the league. Those are his words.
So if the market agrees the price is payable, why is Larkin still in Detroit? Dreger named the real snag himself: there hasn't been a fit so far, at least among the teams on Larkin's list. He started with a short one, reportedly Minnesota, Florida and Vegas, and has since widened the field. He still won't play for a Canadian team, which is why Dreger called the Montreal angle a ship that has sailed.
That's where it stops being about hockey logic. By Elliotte Friedman's account, Steve Yzerman warned Detroit and its owners that a Larkin trade wouldn't be a win-now swap, that any honest return would be built on futures and prospects rather than immediate help, and that they'd better go in expecting that. Ownership didn't like the answer. So instead of trusting the man who gave them the correct read, they set a price that demands a buyer bring full value and NHL-ready help and happen to sit on the captain's approved list. That's three locks on one door.
The tell is Montreal. Their reported package was two NHL forwards, an NHL defenseman, a first-round pick and a conditional pick that could turn into another first. That lands in the neighborhood of Horcoff's ask, maybe past it. A motivated buyer showed up with a real offer, and the deal still died, in part because Detroit won't bend on where their disgruntled captain is allowed to go.
"A prospect" and "top-nine forward" are elastic terms, so the package might be softer than it sounds. Maybe. But that actually hurts Detroit's case. If the ask is really moderate, a near-match like Montreal's should have gotten the deal done. It didn't.
Larkin is signed long-term at a cap hit near $8.7 million, through 2031. He asked out. Detroit's own hockey people told the owners how this would have to work. Chris Ilitch's group heard the truth, didn't like it, and built a price around conditions no team can meet, then called it fair. The owner is the problem.
