Why does this fight excite you? Carlos Prates throws bad-intentioned leather. Islam Makhachev wins by making opponents wade through quicksand for five rounds. You like Prates because you want one punch to blow up the most boring kind of dominance in the sport. That's the fan's wish talking.
Nothing's signed yet. Makhachev vs. Prates is being talked about for UFC 336 on January 30 in Toronto, and that's all it is right now: talk. Toronto deserves the fight. Canadian cards have spent years headlined by whatever the UFC had lying around, and pairing the division's star with a genuine knockout threat is the kind of main event that city has been owed.
But look at who's getting the shot and why. Prates is a finisher out of the Fighting Nerds, and the reason his name is in the title conversation is that he ends fights in highlight packages. Highlight packages sell pay-per-views, but they don't make the case he's the next contender. If the UFC wanted the fight that actually settles who challenges Makhachev, there are eliminators sitting right there for the taking. Instead the plan on the table skips the line because a Prates knockout trailer is easier to cut than a wrestling match.
The power-puncher crowd keeps skipping past something. Makhachev just moved up and dismantled Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322 to grab a second title, then ground down Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330. Garry is long and technical, exactly the sort of striker who's supposed to keep Makhachev honest, and he spent the night getting walked backward and planted. Prates is dangerous for as long as the fight stays standing. The whole problem is that Makhachev decides whether it stays standing, not the man who needs it there.
The optimists point to Makhachev looking human late in some fights, breathing hard, slowing down, and that's real. But fading in the fourth round is only a lifeline if you've survived to the fourth round with your legs under you, and Prates's style is to load up and swing, which against a world-class wrestler is an invitation to get taken down and held there. One clean counter changes everything, but betting a title fight on one punch landing is worse odds than a coin flip.
So book it: it'll headline and draw, and Toronto gets its moment. This is a step-up fight for Prates, and anyone selling it as a 50-50 is wrong. Makhachev takes Prates down, Prates spends the night trying to stand back up, and the people insisting otherwise are rooting for chaos and calling it analysis.
