The season starts tonight, and most of the "contender" list is a story people tell themselves in October. Two teams earned the word last spring. Everyone else waving it around is coasting on names.
Start with the team that actually won it. The Knicks are the defending champions, and they didn't back into it. They went 53-29 last season, third in the East, then tore through the postseason: 4-1 over the Spurs in the Finals, a franchise-record 13 straight playoff wins, and the largest halftime lead in playoff history at 47 points. They might not repeat, but nobody can call them fake. Tonight they host the 76ers at the Garden.
The Spurs are the other one, and they're real for the least glamorous reason: they beat good teams on the way to the Finals. Victor Wembanyama was healthy and dominant, and the rookies did actual work, with 20-year-olds Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant contributing to a Finals run. They open tonight against the Thunder, the team that bounced out of the Western Conference Finals in a Game 7 against these same Spurs. San Antonio already delivered.
Now the pretenders. The 76ers get talked about like a title team because the roster reads well on paper. That roster played 82 games last season and finished 45-37, seventh in the East, into the play-in. They pulled off a first-round upset of Boston, which went 56-26, winning that series 4-3, then the Knicks swept them 4-0 in the next round. They can scare a tired favorite, but they can't survive the champion. The roster's been upgraded since, sure, but they had this same core last year and 45-37 is what it produced. Upgrades are a hope. A sweep is a result.
The Lakers get the same benefit of the doubt for the same bad reason. The contender case is LeBron James and Luka Doncic, two enormous names, and no recent deep playoff run you can actually point to. Fame doesn't buy a playoff run. Until they show something in May, the hype is a billboard.
The Bulls deserve their own category, which is purgatory. They went 31-51 last season and haven't won a title since Michael Jordan left, their six championships all stacked up in the Jordan era. "One year away" has been the pitch for so long it's basically the franchise slogan. Fraud requires expectations, and nobody has any left for Chicago. They're just stuck.
The team nobody wants to crown is the one that earned the most. Detroit finished 60-22, the best record in the East, ahead of Boston, New York and Cleveland, and barely registers in the contender chatter. People are judging contenders by logo instead of record. Boston, meanwhile, is a genuine unknown: they didn't play on Christmas Day last season for the first time since 2015 while Jayson Tatum rehabbed a torn Achilles, and his return timeline is still the thing the whole season swings on. Treat anyone slotting them as a lock as guessing.
Before a jump ball goes up, the picture is simple. The Knicks and Spurs played deep into June and proved it. Detroit won more games than anyone in its conference and gets no credit for it. The 76ers and the Lakers keep getting crowned on names their recent Mays never cashed. If your team's contender case starts with a roster screenshot instead of a playoff series, your team is a fraud.
