If a projection "in the 300s" for Tarik Skubal strikes you as lowballing the best pitcher on the market, you've been fed the wrong number. The $500 million figure that's chewed up every headline is the outlier, the loudest two voices in a crowded room. The quiet, grounded consensus says Skubal signs for something in the $350 million range, and that consensus is right.
ESPN's Kiley McDaniel pulled together 27 contract forecasts for Skubal, running from a floor of four years and $176 million up to ten years and $500 million. The average came in at eight years and $355 million. Sixteen of those 27 projections, a clear majority, clustered between $325 million and $400 million over seven to ten years. Only four of the 27 topped $400 million at all. Two of them hit $500 million.
So when a fan asks whether something in the 300s is too cheap, the honest answer is that it's the single most common outcome insiders are actually forecasting. The $500 million number is the tail of the market, roughly seven percent of the projections, and it got to be the story anyway because it's the shiniest thing on the table. Jeff Passan floated it, Scott Boras represents Skubal, and from there it wrote its own headlines. That's the fault of everyone who ran with the biggest figure and buried the context that the clear majority of forecasts land well below it.
The skeptics have a real point buried in all this. He's the reigning two-time AL Cy Young winner, and across his 2026 season with both the Tigers and Dodgers he went 12-7 with a 2.72 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and 186 strikeouts in 158.2 innings, good for 4.6 WAR. Nobody's arguing he's great. The argument is about years. He turns 30 on Nov. 20, and his elbow has a file: Tommy John in college in 2016, a flexor tendon operation in 2022, and a procedure in 2026 to remove a loose particle. Teams have gotten wary of handing an aging starter a decade of guaranteed money for innings he may not throw at the back end. The new trend is shorter terms at monster annual values. Zack Wheeler is making $42 million a year right now on a deal that runs through 2027. That's the model some teams would rather use.
It won't save them here. Skubal is the headliner of a thin free-agent class with a steep drop-off behind him. Michael King, Freddy Peralta and Trevor Rogers are the next names on the pitching board, which is to say the bidding teams don't have a plan B they love. When there's one ace and several desperate suitors, the length gets long whether the actuaries like it or not. Boras knows this. He also negotiated Gerrit Cole's nine-year, $324 million deal in December 2019 and Max Scherzer's record annual salary for a pitcher. The man does not take eight years when he can get ten.
The destination is murkier. The Dodgers are the favorites to keep him, leading on Kalshi, and most insiders see them and the Mets as the serious players, with the Yankees a close third and the Padres also in the conversation. The Dodgers gave up Zyhir Hope, River Ryan and Brady Smith to land Skubal at the deadline, and they are not in the habit of losing players they want.
But the Dodgers have a problem above the dugout. Owner Mark Walter is facing federal investigations into his insurance companies, with prosecutors examining whether those businesses properly disclosed how certain investments were tied to the rest of his empire. He denies wrongdoing. That's a cloud over the richest wallet in the room at the exact moment it needs to open. Layer on the labor fight: a new collective bargaining agreement has to be in place before the 2027 season, owners are pushing a salary cap the players' union refuses to accept, and even the softer outcome likely means harsher penalties for the highest-spending teams. The Dodgers are the highest-spending team. If the next CBA makes their spending more painful, the opening for the Mets stops being theoretical.
For now, Skubal is saying nothing. Asked about free agency after the Dodgers' season ended, he told reporters, "I'm really not going to comment on my future." He may not need to for long. Of the 27 insiders surveyed, 21 expect him signed before Dec. 1.
My money's on eight years, right around the $355 million average, with Boras squeezing a tenth year if a bidder blinks. And if the Dodgers hesitate for even a week, for any reason, the Mets take him.
