Forget the standings math for a second. The real headline from Wednesday's 5-1 win over the Dodgers is that Manny Machado just answered the one question hanging over this Padres run.
San Diego has been the hottest team in baseball for weeks, and the skeptic's rebuttal has always been the same: sure, but who have they actually beaten? Wednesday, they beat Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Machado did it with a two-run home run to center in the fourth inning that Statcast projected at 409 feet. He added a sacrifice fly later to bring home Fernando Tatis Jr., finishing with three RBI on the night. This was more than padding a stat line against a bullpen day. It was an ace-caliber pitcher, in his final regular-season tune-up, getting handled by the best hitter on the other side.
In my view, that's the swing that should change how people talk about this Padres team heading into October. This wasn't feasting on a soft schedule. This was a middle-of-the-order threat matching up with a pitcher who's given San Diego trouble before, and coming out ahead.
Credit where it's due on the other side too. Yamamoto wasn't blown up, he was undone. He went six innings and allowed four runs, only two of them earned, with a costly throwing error at third accounting for the rest. It was the first time all September he didn't get through at least seven innings. That's a small crack, and this was likely his last outing before he lines up for Game 1 of the NLDS. I wouldn't panic about it in Los Angeles, but it's a name worth watching.
San Diego's bullpen cleaned up after Robbie Ray struggled early, and the offense tacked on an insurance run in the ninth when Samad Taylor walked, stole two bases, and scored on a Freddy Fermin single. That's depth showing up in the innings that decide close games, and it's what this club will need in October.
None of this is finished business. The Dodgers, at 97-61 after the loss, still need one more win or an Atlanta loss to lock up at least the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye, and their 11-game home winning streak is over as of Wednesday. The Padres, at 88-70, took the top spot in the NL wild-card race with this win but hadn't yet clinched a playoff berth themselves, since Arizona's win over Colorado the same night kept that magic number alive. San Diego is still jostling with the Cubs and Phillies for wild-card seeding.
Nothing's settled yet. But the moment worth remembering is Machado standing in against Yamamoto in the fourth inning and not missing.
